CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2025-01-04T13:25:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2025-01-04T13:25ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/36249/-1
CME Note: CME first visible to the NE in SOHO LASCO C2 starting at 2025-01-04T13:25Z. This CME is only visible for a couple faint frames in SOHO LASCO C3 and is covered by a data gap in STEREO A COR2. The source of this CME is most likely an X1.8 flare from AR 3947 that peaked at 2025-01-04T12:48Z. The flare and some ejected material can be seen in GOES SUVI 94, 131, 171, 195, 284, and 304 starting around 2025-01-04T12:30Z
CME Arrival Time: -----
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME: -----
Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-01-08T14:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:
https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/36253/1 Model Inputs: 2025-01-04T13:25:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-50.0, Lat.=8.0, Speed=299.0, HalfAngle=43.0, Time21.5=2025-01-05T01:20Z Model Output: Earth Impact: Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2025-01-08T14:00Z (+- 7 hours) (kp)90=3 (kp)180=4 Other Location(s) Impact: Solar Orbiter with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-01-08T08:00Z Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250105_012000_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250105_012000_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250105_012000_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250105_012000_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250105_012000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250105_012000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250105_012000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250105_012000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250105_012000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250105_012000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250105_012000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250105_012000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250105_012000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250105_012000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250105_012000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250105_012000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_EuropaClippr_timeline.gifLead Time: 89.58 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Elizabeth Juelfs (LASSOS) on 2025-01-04T20:25Z
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